- Primary Subject: The record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations for Sinners and its impact on the Best Picture race
- Key Update: Sinners has officially set a new Academy record with 16 nominations, but it still faces a steep climb to overtake the current critical favorite, One Battle After Another.
- Status: Confirmed
- Last Verified: January 23, 2026
- Quick Answer: With a record 16 nominations, Sinners is a massive threat, but experts still favor One Battle After Another due to a stronger critical consensus and momentum.
With a staggering 16 nominations, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has officially seized the lead in the Oscar race. The film’s massive box office success and critical praise have already made it a powerhouse, but its dominance across the board raises a vital question: Is this genre-bending hit now the undisputed frontrunner for Best Picture?
After securing the most nods of the year, all eyes are on whether Sinners can convert that momentum into a historic win this March.
Is Sinners the Current Frontrunner to Win Best Picture at the Oscars?
With Sinners dominating the Oscar field with a staggering 16 nominations, the immediate question is whether the film has essentially secured the Best Picture trophy. While the tally is historic, the answer remains: not necessarily.
Despite the numerical lead held by its competitors, most industry pundits maintain that One Battle After Another remains the definitive favorite to win. Its frontrunner status is bolstered by overwhelming critical consensus and high scores across major aggregate platforms, signaling deep respect from the press. Furthermore, the film’s timely subject matter resonates powerfully with the current cultural zeitgeist, while its technical mastery represents the kind of crowning cinematic achievement that aligns perfectly with the Academy’s traditional tastes.
For Sinners, the path to the top prize involves overcoming the Academy’s historical "genre bias." While the 16 nods demonstrate broad support (largely driven by technical craft categories and a surprise Best Supporting Actor nomination for Delroy Lindo), genre films often struggle to convert high nomination counts into a Best Picture win.
However, it would be a mistake to dismiss Sinners. A nomination count this high proves the Academy’s admiration is deep and widespread across multiple branches, making it a formidable "spoiler" candidate.
Ultimately, the victor will be decided by the Academy’s preferential voting system, a format where voters rank the nominees in order of preference rather than simply choosing one. Under this system, if a film is consistently ranked second or third on ballots where it isn't the top choice, it can aggregate enough consensus support to eventually reach the winning quota.
If Sinners can pair its high level of passionate support with a status as a broad favorite across the board, it could successfully navigate this process to pull off a historic upset.
We are currently entering Phase Two of the awards season. With nearly two months remaining until the ceremony, the trajectory of the race is still fluid. Historically, momentum can shift overnight based on televised guild awards and the final push of studio PR campaigns.
While some suggest the race is over, the data indicate the Best Picture category is still wide open. Whether One Battle After Another holds its lead or Sinners surges in the final weeks remains the season’s biggest cliffhanger.
Which Films Got Nominated at the 98th Academy Awards?
The Best Picture nominees in the 98th Academy Awards are composed of films such as Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Train Dreams.
Sinners topped the list as it received a record-breaking number of 16 nominations, the most of any film in Oscar history. It was followed by One Battle After Another, which received 13 nominations.
The 98th Academy Awards will take place on March 15 and will air live on ABC and Hulu. For a second time, it will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
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